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In an exclusive interview with Oilprice.com publisher James Stafford, energy security expe.. Prices have crucial support at Rs.4650; once it closes below the same on a weekly basis, prices may fall further.
On the MCX weekly price chart, prices have made a pattern called Diamond Top which happens rarely. The commodity has made a diamond pattern which shows that once prices sustain below Rs.4650 levels, then it may fall further in the near term.
Short-term prices may touch Rs.4400 levels, while long term targets will be Rs.4000 and Rs.3600. On the upside, prices have resistance at Rs.5000 and if the level is broken it will touch Rs.5360 levels.
With this diamond pattern, while applying momentum indicator to RSI for 14 day period on weekly chart, it has made a divergence and is currently trading near 53 levels. This shows that there is no certain direction from current levels for the long term and if it sustains below Rs.4650 levels, it may test Rs.4000 and Rs.3600 levels in this coming year.
Traders with high risk appetite may go short on crude oil between Rs.5180-5220 with the stop loss of Rs.5500 and target of Rs.4700/4650. Other traders may go short below Rs.4650 with the stop loss of Rs.5000 and they can wait for the targets of Rs.4000 and Rs.3600 for long term.
MCX crude oil is the worst performer in energy complex this year which fell more than 5.50% compared to last year. In 2011, MCX Crude prices settled higher at Rs.5296 and this year prices are trading at Rs.5000 levels.
In 2012, MCX Crude prices have made a high of Rs.5635; the prices were unable to sustain at higher levels thereafter and made a low of Rs.4448.
While comparing with the top performer of energy complex in 2012, natural gas prices is trading higher by more than 15% from the previous year.
